You do know you are allowed to sell? Right?

Savage.

Brilliant. It just amazes me that the Federal Government has given Meta a pass on this business model (as well as the titanic theft of information it swallows and weaponized against unsuspecting customers).

The criminality of hosting a flesh market in all 50 states means the State Attorney Generals might want to hop on board to this thesis.

Texas just passed a law (I believe) that makes it illegal to ban someone on social media for protected speech.

The honeymoon period is over for Mark and his hoodie.

PUTS buffet. Yes, sir.

Sorry. I'm her boyfriend. Incidentally what time is breakfast this morning?

The marketplace is reassing value. You had perceived value versus actual value.

Having a job is actual value. Giga Chad is perceived value. Guess which one has better price discovery in the marketplace?

The message is to think for yourself.

How old do you think these executives were 12 years old?

Seriously are you trying to argue these morons spent 14 months looking at screens wondering what to do about a billion dollar wealth destruction....and they didnt have the competency to do anything about it?

I sat looking at my computer screen in November 2021. Just as Powell said the Federal Reseve was going to be raising rates and pivot from their "transitory" viewpoint on inflation.

I have been locked in for the last 14 months. Each day watching this policy change in action. It's not brain surgery. It's simple stuff.

Please don't be an apologist for a bunch of twits in Silicon Valley who failed to make the most basic attempts at hedging a multibillion bond position.

Why? When they saw they needed money they approached Goldman Sachs as the savior to buy the long bond position (at market valuations) as well as to float a share issue (to make up for the lost principle value on their balance sheet).

A bunch of VC's got wind of the deal and jumped on Twitter...and the game was over.

This was 3rd grade mis-management by the bank who was more concerned about social governance nonsense than being good stewards of other people's money.

Look at you coming back for more abuse. You're such a narcissistic twit.

You so uneducated you can't swallow what was said and points made because they went over your head.

You sound like the sales twits that work for me. Go back to looking at watches, blow drying your hair, and dreaming of a Porsche.

Geez. You're a cliche. Go work for another 20 years and get back with me. You're wasting my time.

Agreed. They saw what was happening on their balance sheet, but decided to "play chicken" with the Federal Reserve.

The gambled. They hesitated to make decisions. In their view no way would the Fed raise rates 8 times within a year.

They got caught with their pants down. Consequently, they pushed these bad decisions on the shoulders of third parties with the CEO jetting out to Hawaii (washing his hands of this collapse).

80% of volume is institutional trading and Bloomberg finds it necessary to devalue retail with this hit piece?

Next up.. they blame the entire upcoming market meltdown on retail. Is this "future faking" at its best?

Interesting.

What's the problem Princess. Do you you really believe an inverted yield curve that predicted every recession for the last 50 years is going to be beneficial?

You only have 120 Karma. You have 9 posts about watches and 1 post on WSB. What are you some paid hack for this stock?

I can tell by your persistent disregard for reality and facts you're pumping this stock. You're such a lightweight you don't have enough brainpower for me to block you.

I will just let you be. Sucking your thumb.

BX just told their investor group the Federal Reserve isn't stopping their rate escalation until late 2024.

Do you honestly believe they would waste the equity of 9 rate hikes in just over a year to reverse course now?

Dumb and stupid is no way to go through life.

I don't need to be right. The market is telling me that I am right.

My position is the marketplace is forecasting these truths. You can ignore these breadcrumbs all you want (and following your own beliefs).

You're not selling me your views. I just presented mine.

That's why you have a counter party in every trade. You have winners and losers. You exchange that value in every transaction.

Good luck.

You have not accepted the truth that all commercial real estate is falling in sympathy to macro trends that are not going to be reversed for at least 5 years.

This is a global problem. They main purchasers of REIT products have been foreign investors who are now concerned about the stability of all securitized products (especially commercial real estate).

Diversification works on financial assets when you are trying to mitigate risks that are known (to a degree) but are not inherently ineffective when the underlying fabrics of currency and interest rates are destroying investment models globally.

Investors are not stupid. They see the tide going out. There's zero chance that they will have the patience to hold an illiquid "product" when they can get a risk free return of possible 9%-10% on sovereign backed debt in the near future.

Far East investors are exiting structured products and seeking saftey in "tax payer" backed debt instrument to ride out the coming collapse on both residential and commercial real estate.

The markets are accurately leading indicators of what coming over the horizon. You are seeing 50%-70% collapses (which are only the beginning) as capital moves out all these managed funds.

My view is stay away. You can achieve better risk free returns without swallowing the commercial real estate risk chasing yield.

You don't run into a burning building to turn off the coffee pot. You just witnessed a 50% decline in this REIT for reason.

The 100 year old business lease models are changed and it has to do with a variety of reasons: demographics, COVID stay at home work models, increases in office lease costs due to inflation and currency devaluation.

Imagine "hot" desks were workers work at home 3 days a week (and in the office the other 2 days). Sharing desk with others.

The REIT debt models are not designed to deal with this shrinkage of needed square footage by its customers.

BX just walked away from a portfolio of properties in Europe. Why? The numbers aren't working. United States market is next.

The pilots union at Southwest was not backing down on the company mandate to receive the COVID vaccine. It was well researched and pretty simple thesis. The company needed humans to fly their planes and 60% of the pilots said..nope.

I just got lucky on the Christmas computer cancelation and delay fiasco that dovetailed into the position.

Rather be lucky than good.

Let time and patience do their perfect work. You'll get good. Why? Because you won't stop.

Ever.

Be patient. There's a hundred life changing trades every year. It's been that way since the early 1990's since I've been trading.

Keep building your skills. Enjoy the ride. It's a puzzle that's only available to the few who can "see the pieces".

You have a gift..most people don't have. Trust me.

It depends. Are you a day trader exclusively? Or can you see macro positions and trends. Are you a Micheal Burry type, or a bunny hoping from position to position.

My biggest trades this year: Southwest airlines after the Christmas screw up, SLV run up after one year beat down, and Nortfork Southern derailment.

It took me 25 years to see this trades develop. Now it's like looking at the obvious. Trade on osmosis.

Everybody has a different style. 500 trades a year, or only 10. Find your lane and crush it. Nobody really cares..so just get better each day. Enjoy the ride.

Yep. Demand destruction due to price and usage declines. We are now entering a recessionary cycle that is going to run 5 years.

Time to make coin on the downside.

No. You don't get it. Accepting fraud and poor management of customers capital is not something that should be accepted as good behavior.

"Riding the waves" of incompetence is something I just need to accept? Please explain to me where did you come up with such brilliant insight? A child thinks this way.

You logic suggests the underlying currency (the US Dollar) can withstand a perpetual train of corruption without investors every questioning its value and stability. We should just ignore common sense because things will just magically fix themselves? Good luck with your thesis.

No. It's confidence in the currency that cannot remanufactured with policy statements.

Please document in the last 30 years when the Federal Reserves "toolkit" has reversed the dollars decline in purchasing power. You can submit 1 example (not hard).

The truth is you cannot. It's just one on acronym after another (QE #1-#4, Operation Twits, PPP supported check dispersonal, Corpirate Debt Purchading Normalization, etc).

The destruction of the currency will occur with a 25% decline (its the 1 to 100 leverage in the currency futures markets that would create the choas).

We shall find out soon. I personally give the Federal Reserve 60 days before price discovery in the currency markets concludes the Russian ruble, or Chinese yuan will offer a better store of value than the US Dollar.

We fund our national debt with short term sovereign debt products such as T-Bills and Notes. You have investors worldwide who are watching the principle destruction occurring on the balance sheets of the banks.

They're not stupid. Why would they roll over that debt for another 6 months to a year? They won't (resulting in a no bid at the debt auctions).

This is the real dilemma the Treasury is staring down tonight.

We shall see.

No. That would be the nationalization of the banking system for the $19 trillion sitting in deposits (if people lose confidence). You can only play this game for so long. The FDIC as of last week had $128 billion and the balance sheet of the Fed is at almost $10 trillion. This would make the US Dollar worthless.

The US Dollar would be crushed. We are at risk of losing Reserve Currency Status if this gets out of control.

It's the mentality the Fed can : lend, promise, backstop, and securitize their way out of this jam.

Remember in 2008 they had a balance sheet of less than $1 trillion. Now in 2023 it's $10 trillion.

You do realize these banks use their balance sheets for collateral?

We're getting ready to seen a tsunami of withdrawals in the next 60 days once the public's recognition of the fact takes hold that the FDIC can cover just 1.5% of all demand deposits.

Businesses, non profits, LLC, teaching institutions, and of course retirees holding above $250,000 with bank CD's all decide to seek saftey immediately.

Your going the see the folly of the decision to drop the reserve requirements to 0%.

MMM does not calculate "fear and greed" in any of its theoretical assertions. It leaves out the nastiness of a capital collapse from consideration. It leaves out the brutality and fear of the counter parties in a financial transaction.

I've been there. I've experienced it first hand. This is the moment that all the undisciplined behavior by these banks is going to be discovered and brought to the light.

Banking and capital preservation needs a "hard discipline" to make sure capital allocation is accountable and controlled.

Otherwise (as you saw with Credit Suisse last weekend) executives run for cover and all the skills that were supposed to keep a collapse from happening... disappears.