MosesZD t1_jdmr97n wrote

Which is 100% meaningless. Here is the real science:

We live in what is called an 'inter-glacial period.' They're short, about 10K-to-12K years. But as our orbital dynamics change, the earth gets cold again. Global temperatures over the next 10K years will drop between 12C and 15C. We have understood those cycles longer than you have been alive. But the fear-mongers don't care about that. After all, 'don't worry, be happy' doesn't get you political power through fear-mongering with pseudoscience.

Or as NASA says:

>Cycles also play key roles in Earth’s short-term weather and long-term climate. A century ago, Serbian scientist Milutin Milankovitch hypothesized the long-term, collective effects of changes in Earth’s position relative to the Sun are a strong driver of Earth’s long-term climate, and are responsible for triggering the beginning and end of glaciation periods (Ice Ages).

Strong is the wrong word. Primary is the correct word.

In fact, you can see the cycles when you look at EPICA (European Project on Ice Core Analysis) data (which is brought to you by Wikipedia) and you can see with your own eyes that 120K years ago it was warmer than it is now. And a 120K years before that.

There was no industrialization to cause those temperature spikes leading to inter-glacial periods. Humans barely existed.

Yet when you look at the obvious pattersn, you can see the inevitable the global temperature changes caused by the Milankovitch cycles. That's actual science. Not 'lets scare the shit out of people for political power' psuedo science.

Milankovitch driven-climate cycles have been verified by EPCIA, by astronomers and by geologists who (studying sea-core samples) who also discovered the same cycles. But Al Gore can't sell a you line a bullshit if you know how it really works.


MosesZD t1_ja3te1i wrote

Keynes predicted the treaty would destroy Germany's economy and usher in hyper-inflation. He then said that could lead to some sort of destabilization of Germany.

You can read your self in his The Economic Consequences of the Peace, published in December, 1919. He didn't predict Nazis. But he did predict it would cause problems.


MosesZD t1_j89kk9a wrote

It's more than that. Technology advances on a sigmoid curve until there's an entirely new breakthrough and we're at the low-growth end of that curve after going through the high-growth.

Now, it's much more static mature market with mere incremental changes. And while it may be a shock to the tech-manufactures, in these mature-technology markets sales will fluctuate with far more with the economy instead of the tech-driven replace rate that we went through during the 90s and 00s.

And I'm a great example of it. From 1988 through about 2008 I had to replace/upgrade my work and personal computers every two years to keep up with the changes in programs that got more powerful (or just bloated) to take advantage of all the power increases.

Now I get a new computer every 7 years on average. I got my first i7-based computer in 2009. I'm now on my third i-7 that I bought just 3 months ago. That's about 7-years a PC now. Not two.