SateliteDicPic t1_je2w18h wrote

I have respect for people that post their mistakes. Every single one of us that are actually trading have some losses/have made mistakes. I hope it’s a learning experience for you and the next ones go your way.


SateliteDicPic t1_jdzgis7 wrote

Prices for the consumer will not fall unless the economy enters a deflationary phase which economists tend to view as negative.

Consider an example. Back in or after the GFC oil spiked higher and airlines added fees that were implemented so they could “survive.” All those fees are still being charged today (baggage fees, etc) to my knowledge. Once an industry manages to condition consumers to certain fees, price points, etc they will not roll those changes back until forced to by market conditions or regulation.


SateliteDicPic t1_jadfzfr wrote

WSB 2022: “Transitory? Powel’s job should be transitory. Of course we have inflation m1 went up 8464538265% in one hour!”

WSB 2023 YTD: “Inflation is dead, we have a no-landing scenario here.” “Soft-landing confirmed (various clownass Uber bullish noises) TSLA to 500 by EOY.

The Fed and every reasonable economist out there knows damn well only a recession gets us where we need to be. But then again maybe we can just have an 80 year bull market and the labor market won’t crack for the first time in recorded human history right?


SateliteDicPic t1_ja8hspy wrote

This depends entirely on the market environment we are in as well as a few other factors. In today’s market you are 100% correct and that phenomenon SHOULD continue to become more apparent if the market is functioning appropriately.

However in a 0% rate market then buying as much growth as possible is the way to go. Look at the money made in TSLA (previous to profitability), Affirm, Zoom, etc. These firms can always borrow against or issue shares as long as growth metrics continue to look good.

In today’s market I can get 5% plus risk free - for me to take risk I will need to see an incredibly compelling opportunity. This is the issue markets face today that they haven’t in ~20 years.


SateliteDicPic t1_j6l6k5y wrote

That’s an improvement over where I live where people just sneer in its general direction.

Chanos said today he thinks they don’t have enough cash to finish out the year.

ETA: I’m a regarded degenerate that can’t tell one plant based “meat” product business with a hyperbolic name from the other one.


SateliteDicPic t1_iyd0g5v wrote

Zero risk? You aren’t going to convince anyone by making hyperbolic claims like that. You can believe in the firm or your investing thesis but “zero risk” is at best willfully ignorant and at worst intentionally dishonest.

You are blowing off every geopolitical concern as if those outcomes are so unlikely they shouldn’t be considered. Xi has already made some decisions that even last year people would have considered very unlikely as well. The world is changing and the geopolitical risks are very real.

I remember everyone saying in January that Russia wouldn’t invade Ukraine.


SateliteDicPic t1_iufuw3g wrote

I believe he will be Hawkish AF but we still get .75bps hike. The real question will be if the market believes him or if like in June when he comes out saying hawkish shit the market yawns and buys the dip harder. Jpow speech days were some of the biggest greenest dildos all year up until Jackson Hole.