arpatel530 t1_ja9pili wrote

So 61% YTD is not enough. You want another 8%. Go look at weekly. This is going for 8 weeks green in a row with money flow at extreme overbought levels. It finally hit weekly cloud resistance. Pull back is here. I'm short shares and naked calls. Means you will get 260 this week given my ability


arpatel530 t1_j2clhsc wrote

I think the real drop to 3200 will be mid part of the year when we get earnings miss, proper earnings revisions downward and finally the effects of interest rate hikes. At that time, I'm hoping to see real panic to flush out all the over leveraged folks.

Right now we are getting 4% risk free and we should be 5% next year when Fed finally hits it's rate target. Rather that then trying to get an extra 3% for equities (assuming 8% historical annual gains).

Also we finally get a proper bear market lasting longer than 18 months.


arpatel530 t1_j2cl4ws wrote

Max out 401k. Put every other $ for house into hysa at 4% and don't play with it. Every other $ that is free use in a taxable account and start buying schd. Don't complicate things.

Your goal right now is to maximize earnings thru your job. That's where the bulk of your early to mid career wealth will come from. The late part of your wealth will be from assets and equities that you built up over time.


arpatel530 t1_j2cka0r wrote

I agree we rally into earnings for January and then we fall down and finally break the 2022 lows into March. April, May stay flat and then drop hard in June and July at which time I'm hoping we are -20% ytd again so puts us at 3000/3200 spy mark.

Not going long until we see actual pivot and then wait at least 3 months. Only reason Fed will pivot is because something is broken in economy which means more bad stuff happening in short term.

I am hoping we can start going long come Nov 2023.