grimkhor t1_jegqwg6 wrote

Reply to comment by HGDuck in Beyond Meat? by ScummyCivicOwner

I don't know what you're talking about. I'm not vegan at all and I think it tastes great. Prices are also fine. Stock is really bad so I would agree on the puts.


grimkhor t1_jegn5rn wrote

Reply to Advice by [deleted]

Your education. Your job will earn multiple millions in your lifetime. If you spend less than you earn and just invest in the stock market that's already enough. You won't get any lambos by investing. Play the lottery if you like the thrill it's cheaper.


grimkhor t1_jeffhez wrote

I gave you the reason you asked for. This is not about bull markets or not. It's about that Shiller PE doesn't weight the current valuation very high. If todays market would drop to 0 and no change in inflation so a PE of 0 the Shiller PE would drop from 29 to 26 that's how much a year worth of PE is weighted.


grimkhor t1_jef7x4g wrote

Jo are the heads also talking about leverage, factors, portfolio strategies, arbitrage, volatility, hedging or special situation investing? If they only talk about how to best stroke their cocks I'm not interested.

Buffet invested in nearly bankrupt companies, puts all his eggs in one basket and takes leverage to the next level with his insurance companies. I think you took the wrong guy for an example.


grimkhor t1_jef3z0n wrote

Shiller PE uses a 10 year trailing PE so when stocks drop in PE it only has a 1/10th influence on their PE but inflation is build in directly so the Shiller PE is high. That's why the Shiller PE is terrible to use for current valuation. It can be used for long term (decades) prediction of future returns e.g. the next 10y market returns might be lower than the last (no need to be negative btw). This can also happen even further in the future so that's why Shiller PE is only useful if you think in decades but as you regards already forgot the beginning of the comment it doesn't really matter img


grimkhor t1_jeekfkr wrote

You do you. You're obviously very heavily invested in it anyway. Sentiment only works for markets as a whole. Lots of hated sectors don't exist anymore or didn't make profits for decades. There's no way a commodity product is in any way premium that it can sustain such high margins. Either it doesn't expand the market enough or the margins will shrink. At the end of the day for me it's not different than farming any other product.

This post is also a bit misleading as it could easily be "Companies get listed on an exchange that got kicked out of the real one". Still good luck to you.


grimkhor t1_jeec2qz wrote

The top chart doesn't make any sense at all. It compares yoy (or mom?!) numbers of deposits from peak?!

Here's the still very dramatic yoy deposit numbers with a zoom to make them look more dramatic again.

So if you now take this chart look where it peaked (probably in 2020 with covid money) and now take the amount of money this change until now represents it would be the posts chart. It's absolutely useless but it is what it is.


OPs chart is basically a Frankenstein of the drop top right here and translated to a big number instead of percent:

Not even starting to talk about the headline being about outflows while the chart being about change in deposits.


grimkhor t1_jeeaa6g wrote

It says nothing besides a regard trying to create copium for their puts.

Looks a lot less dramatic using the monthly total numbers.

Edit: Looking at their site it makes a lot of sense now. They want to pitch you alternative investments because the stock market is too dangerous img You NEED them and you should pay them img

>Since our founding in 1990, we have established a notable record of success in alternative investments.


grimkhor t1_jee9kfl wrote

Ah yes the very dramatic chart only issue is that it doesn't mean anything. It's change in deposits not outflows and considering that 2020 and 2021 had covid which grew the savings rate significantly you would expect that people deposit a lot less comparatively (what the chart measures actually) now that everything is opened again and a crisis is going on.


grimkhor t1_jedvd6x wrote

>“The negative impact on GDP at around 1.25% would be only a third of the roughly 4% decline in GDP during the 2008 financial crisis”

33% of the 50% GFC decline would be 16.5% so we already crashed harder and are now at the expected lows. Put holders lose all their tenders. Very bullish. Thanks for visiting my ted talk.